We study cointegration and causality between the real price of oil and the real price of the dollar over the 1974-2004 period. Our results suggest that a 10% rise in the oil price coincides with a 4.3% appreciation of the dollar in the long run, and that the causality runs from oil to the dollar. Through the development of a theoretical model, we then investigate possible reasons why this relationship could be reversed in the future due to the emergence of China as a major player on both the oil and the foreign exchange markets.
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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number
2005-16.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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