Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Adrian W. Throop
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the association between exchange rates and the real interest rate differentials. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be empirically important. These are productivity growth, which changes the relative price of traded goods at home versus abroad, government budget deficits, and the real price of oil. ; These factors along with real interest rates are shown to explain at least 80 percent of the longer run variation in both the trade-weighted dollar and bilateral rates against the dollar. An error correction model that includes these factors is shown to have out-of-sample prediction errors for changes in the trade-weighted dollar that are 30 to 45 percent lower than those from a naive model of no change, at horizons of four to eight quarters. The prediction errors for bilateral rates against the dollar are almost as low.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/1993/93-2_3-16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1993)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 3-16

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:3-16:n:2

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
    Phone: (415) 974-2000
    Fax: (415) 974-3333
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Econometric models ; Prices ; Interest rates;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2011. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate," Working Paper Series 1405, European Central Bank.
    2. Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995. "Real Disturbances, Relative Prices, and Purchasing Power Parity," International Finance 9502002, EconWPA.
    3. Philippe Charlot & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Working Papers hal-00980125, HAL.
    4. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," International Finance 9509001, EconWPA.
    5. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
    6. Zhou, Su & Mahdavi, Saeid, 1996. "Simple vs. generalized interest rate and purchasing power parity models of exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 197-218.
    7. Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Les liens entre les fluctuations du prix du pétrole et du taux de change du dollar," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 187-195.
    8. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
    9. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2012. "The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 137-146.
    10. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    11. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
    12. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:3-16:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.