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Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity

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  • Dibooglu, Selahattin

Abstract

This paper tests a modified version of Purchasing Power Parity, which hypothesizes that real shocks that alter equilibrium relative prices between tradables and non-tradables are responsible for the deviations from purchasing power parity. Using cointegration/error-correction methods and quarterly data from the post Bretton Woods period, we find supportive evidence that productivity, government spending, and real world oil price might account for deviations from purchasing power parity.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 18 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 69-87

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:18:y:1996:i:1:p:69-87

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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  1. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  2. Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Baillie, R.T. & Pecchenino, R.A., 1991. "The Search for Equilibrium Relationships in International Finance : The Case of the Monetary Model," Papers 9003, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  7. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  8. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
  10. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1992. "Learning from the Reagan Deficits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 299-304, May.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
  12. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1992. "Learning From the Reagan Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  14. Enders, Walter, 1988. "ARIMA and Cointegration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 504-08, August.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  16. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
  19. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  20. Masson, Paul & Blundell-Wignall, Adrian, 1985. "Fiscal policy and the exchange rate in the big seven : Transmission of U.S. government spending shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 11-42.
  21. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
  22. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
  23. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
  2. Arne Kildegaard, 2006. "Fundamentals of real exchange rate determination: What role in the peso crisis?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
  3. De Carvalho, Anthony, 2002. "Wage Adjustment, Imperfect Competition and Real Exchange Rate Reversion: An Attempt to Unravel the PPP Puzzle," Discussion Papers 706, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  4. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
  5. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade," Working Papers hal-00507823, HAL.
  6. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
  7. Stacie Beck & Cagay Coskuner, 2007. "Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 854-868, November.
  8. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2012. "The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 137-146.
  9. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-94, November.
  10. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
  11. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "GCC Countries and the Nexus between Exchange Rate and Oil Price: What wavelet decomposition reveals?," MPRA Paper 55871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Selahattin Dibooglu & Faik Koray, 2001. "The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 123-143, April.
  14. Ping Wang & Paul Dunne, 2000. "Sources of movements in real exchange rates-evidence from east Asian economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 158-170, March.

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