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Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return

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  • Kang, Wensheng
  • Ratti, Ronald A.

Abstract

Oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are interrelated and influence stock market return. For the U.S. an unanticipated increase in policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on real stock returns. A positive oil-market specific demand shock (indicating greater concern about future oil supplies) significantly raises economic policy uncertainty and reduces real stock returns. The direct effects of oil shocks on real stock returns are amplified by endogenous policy uncertainty responses. Economic policy uncertainty and oil-market specific demand shock account for 19% and 12% of the long-run variability in real stock returns, respectively. As a robustness check, (domestic) economic policy uncertainty is shown to also significantly influence real stock returns in Europe and in energy-exporting Canada.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 305-318

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:305-318

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

Related research

Keywords: Oil shocks; Economic policy uncertainty; Stock returns; Structural VAR;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
  2. repec:ipg:wpaper:36 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Are Stock Prices Related to Political Uncertainty Index in OECD Countries? Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Working Papers 2013-036, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Juan Carlos Reboredo & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Working Papers 2014-159, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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