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Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole

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  • Lescaroux, François

    (Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP) – Direction des études économiques)

Abstract

An Interpretative Survey of Oil Price-GDP Elasticities. In the context of rising crude oil prices observed in the last six years, this paper attempts to explain the variability of the estimated oil price-GDP elasticities. We shall begin with a presentation of the main results of the analyses conducted in the last 30 years concerning the impact of energy prices on economic activity by explaining briefly the theoretical mechanisms and by reporting exhaustively the estimated elasticities. We shall then interpret these analyses and their conclusions, by distinguishing first between the short-run macroeconomic effects and the long-run ones, second between the effects of an upward disequilibrium of the oil price and the ones of an upturn in its equilibrium level. This analysis shall let us classify the published elasticities according to the type of oil price-GDP relationship that they are supposed to deal with. For each group, we shall comment as well the width of the band covered by the elasticities and mitigate the conclusions of some studies. Résumé : Dans le contexte du renchérissement du pétrole brut observé depuis six ans, l’objectif de ce texte est d’expliquer la variabilité des élasticités estimées entre le prix du pétrole et le PIB. Nous commencerons par présenter les principaux résultats des analyses réalisées depuis 30 ans en expliquant brièvement les mécanismes théoriques et en reportant de la façon la plus exhaustive possible les élasticités estimées. Nous interpréterons ensuite ces études et leurs conclusions en distinguant d’abord les effets macroéconomiques à court terme et à long terme. Nous verrons ensuite les effets d’un déséquilibre à la hausse du prix du pétrole et ceux d’une hausse de son niveau d’équilibre. Cette analyse permettra de classifier les élasticités publiées selon le type de relation – PIB-prix du pétrole – qu’elles sont censées décrire. Nous commenterons également, pour chaque groupe, la largeur de l’intervalle couvert par les élasticités et nuancerons les conclusions de certaines études.

Suggested Citation

  • Lescaroux, François, 2008. "Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 415-447, Décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0009
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