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A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy

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Author Info
David I. Stern (Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies)

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Abstract

This paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of GDP and energy use in the USA in the post-war period to a cointegration analysis of that relationship. It is found that the majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis. The results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space. The results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics. The results are similar to my previous Granger Causality results and contradict claims in the literature (based on bivariate models) that there is no cointegration between energy and output.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program in its series Working Papers in Ecological Economics with number 9803.

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Date of creation: Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:anu:wpieep:9803

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  1. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1984. "The Role of Energy in Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 26-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
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  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2006. "On the exploration of casual relationship between energy and economy," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 5-2006, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. David I. Stern & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2004. "Energy and Economic Growth," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0410, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson, 2008. "Testing for Energy Market Integration in China," Working Papers in Economics 08/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui Manuel Marvão Pereira, 2009. "Is Fuel-Switching a No-Regrets Environmental Policy? VAR Evidence on Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Performance in Portugal," Working Papers 87, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Phu Nguyen Van, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic development:a semiparametric panel analysis," THEMA Working Papers 2008-03, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2009. "Co2 Emissions, Electricity Consumption And Output In Asean," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 13-09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Edgardo Sica, 2007. "Causality between Energy and Economic Growth: the Italian case," Quaderni DSEMS 03-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C. Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  9. Erdal Karagöl & Erman Erbaykal & H.Murat Ertuðrul, 2006. "Oil Consumption and GNP Relationship In Turkey: An Empirical Study," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 366-372 Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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