Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality analysis
AbstractIn this paper, the Johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption (PCEC) and per capita gross domestic product (PCGDP) for Tunisia during the 1971-2004 period. In order to test for Granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables, a vector error correction model (VECM) is used instead of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Our estimation results indicate that the PCGDP and PCEC for Tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long-run bi-directional causal relationship between the two series and a short-run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product (GDP). The source of causation in the long-run is found to be the error-correction terms in both directions. Hence, an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to GDP growth in Tunisia. Conclusions for Tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Energy consumption Johansen cointegration Tunisia;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Jumbe, Charles B. L., 2004. "Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 61-68, January.
- David I. Stern, 1998.
"A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy,"
Working Papers in Ecological Economics
9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
- Ghali, Khalifa H. & El-Sakka, M. I. T., 2004. "Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 225-238, March.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000.
"The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 1999. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123754, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
- Mozumder, Pallab & Marathe, Achla, 2007. "Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 395-402, January.
- Cheng, Benjamin S. & Lai, Tin Wei, 1997. "An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-444, October.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 415-427, May.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
- Mehrara, Mohsen, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2939-2945, May.
- Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
- Yang, Hao-Yen, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, June.
- Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November.
- Yuan, Jiahai & Zhao, Changhong & Yu, Shunkun & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: Cointegration and co-feature analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1179-1191, November.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
- Glasure, Yong U. & Lee, Aie-Rie, 1998. "Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy: The case of South Korea and Singapore," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 17-25, March.
- Oh, Wankeun & Lee, Kihoon, 2004. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP revisited: the case of Korea 1970-1999," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-59, January.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2005. "Energy demand and economic growth: The African experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 891-903, November.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
- Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July.
- Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
- Shiu, Alice & Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-54, January.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.