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The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis

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  • Du, Limin
  • Yanan, He
  • Wei, Chu

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the world oil price and China's macro-economy based on a monthly time series from 1995:1 to 2008:12, using the method of multivariate vector autoregression (VAR). The results show that the world oil price affects the economic growth and inflation of China significantly, and the impact is non-linear. On the other hand, China's economic activity fails to affect the world oil price, which means that the world oil price is still exogenous with respect to China's macro-economy in time series sense, and China has not yet had an oil pricing power in the world oil markets. The structural stability tests demonstrate that there is a structural break in the VAR model because of the reforms of China's oil pricing mechanism, thus it is more appropriate to break the whole sample into different sub-samples for the estimation of the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 4142-4151

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:4142-4151

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Oil price shocks Macro-economy China;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ming Zhang & Qing Xia & Wenwen Wang & Min Zhou, 2014. "Study on temporal and spatial evolution of China’s oil supply and consumption," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 809-825, June.
  2. Hasanat Shah, Syed & Li, Jun Jiang & Hasanat, Hafsa, 2013. "The impact of Oil Price and Oil Price Fluctuation on Growth Exports and Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 52560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 730-738.
  4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Wu, Libo & Li, Jing & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2013. "Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input–output analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 354-369.
  6. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  8. Gang Fan & Liping He & Xiaoyun Wei & Liyan Han, 2013. "China’s growth adjustment: moderation and structural changes," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 9-24, March.
  9. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
  10. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.

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