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The effect of oil price on China's exports

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  • Faria, João Ricardo
  • Mollick, André Varella
  • Albuquerque, Pedro H.
  • León-Ledesma, Miguel A.

Abstract

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik [Rodrik, Dani, 2006. What's so special about China's exports? China and World Economy 14, 1-19.]'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992-2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 793-805

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:793-805

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco

Related research

Keywords: Oil prices Competitiveness Exports Productivity ARDL model;

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Cited by:
  1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "Analyzing Time-Frequency Relationship between Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Pakistan through Wavelets," MPRA Paper 48086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2013.
  2. Libo Wu & Jing Li & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011. "Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: a partial transmission input-output analysis," Economics Study Area Working Papers 115, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  3. Aktas, Erkan & Özenç, Çiğdem & Arıca, Feyza, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 8658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2010.
  4. Du, Yuxin & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2012. "A bibliometric account of Chinese economics research through the lens of the China Economic Review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 743-762.
  5. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 13-38.
  6. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
  7. He, Y.X. & Zhang, S.L. & Yang, L.Y. & Wang, Y.J. & Wang, J., 2010. "Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6629-6637, November.
  8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.

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