Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks

Contents:

Author Info

  • Anna Pavlova
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

We study the comovement among stock prices and exchange rates in a three-good, three-country, Centre-Periphery, dynamic equilibrium model in which the Centre's agents face portfolio constraints. We characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints, solving for stock prices, terms of trade, and portfolio holdings. We show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the Periphery countries and the Centre, which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the Periphery. We associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion. The model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight-to-quality effects. Copyright 2008, Wiley-Blackwell.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00509.x
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1215-1256

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:4:p:1215-1256

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. David Cass & Anna Pavlova, . "On Trees and Logs," CARESS Working Papres 00-01, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  2. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "The curse of non-investment grade countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 423-449, December.
  3. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. Angel Serrat, 2001. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Holdings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1467-1489, November.
  6. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, 02.
  8. Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
  14. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1978. "A theory of international trade under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 22112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  16. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  18. Tepla, Lucie, 2000. "Optimal portfolio policies with borrowing and shortsale constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1623-1639, October.
  19. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International business cycles with endogenous incomplete markets," Staff Report 265, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Basak, Suleyman & Pavlova, Anna & Shapiro, Alexander, 2008. "Offsetting the implicit incentives: Benefits of benchmarking in money management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1883-1893, September.
  22. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
  23. Cass, David & Siconolfi, Paolo & Villanacci, Antonio, 2001. "Generic regularity of competitive equilibria with restricted participation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 61-76, September.
  24. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March.
  25. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank.
  26. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. " Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-63, December.
  27. Basak, Suleyman & Croitoru, Benjamin, 2000. "Equilibrium Mispricing in a Capital Market with Portfolio Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 715-48.
  28. Jérôme B. Detemple & Shashidhar Murthy, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-12, CIRANO.
  29. Jérôme Detemple & Angel Serrat, 2003. "Dynamic Equilibrium with Liquidity Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 597-629.
  30. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  31. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield, . "An Examination of Heterogeneous Beliefs with a Short Sale Constraint," GSIA Working Papers 2002-E2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  32. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, 04.
  33. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  34. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
  35. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  36. Detemple, Jerome & Murthy, Shashidhar, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1133-74.
  37. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  38. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
  41. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
  42. Alexander Shapiro, 2002. "The Investor Recognition Hypothesis in a Dynamic General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 97-141, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:4:p:1215-1256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.