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Asset Prices and Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Pavlova, Anna
Rigobon, Roberto

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Abstract

This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model, in which the real exchange rate, stock and bond prices are jointly determined. The model predicts that stock market prices are correlated internationally even though their dividend processes are independent, providing a theoretical argument in favor of financial contagion. The foreign exchange market serves as a propagation channel from one stock market to the other. The model identifies interconnections among stock, bond and foreign exchange markets and characterizes their joint dynamics as a three-factor model. Contemporaneous responses of each market to changes in the factors are shown to have unambiguous signs. These implications enjoy strong empirical support. Estimation of various versions of the model reveals that most of the signs predicted by the model indeed obtain in the data, and the point estimates are in line with the implications of our theory. Moreover, the factors we extract from daily data on stock indexes and exchange rates explain a sizable fraction of the variation in a number of macroeconomic variables, and the estimated signs on the factors are consistent with our model's implications. We also derive agents' portfolio holdings and identify economic environments under which they exhibit a home bias, and demonstrate that an international CAPM obtaining in our model has two additional factors.

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 4322-03.

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Date of creation: 30 Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:7349

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Keywords: Asset Pricing; Exchange Rate; Contagion; International Finance; Open Economy Macroeconomics;

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  7. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Cass, David & Pavlova, Anna, 2003. "On Trees And Logs," Working papers 4233-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Charles L. Schultze, 2003. "The Consumer Price Index: Conceptual Issues and Practical Suggestions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 3-22, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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