'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion
AbstractThis Paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis, which generalizes existing tests, and applies it to the international effects of the Hong Kong stock market crisis of October 1997. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the international transmission of financial shocks. For plausible values of the variance of country-specific shocks in Hong Kong, our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17. This is in sharp contrast with the findings of recent literature, according to which there is 'no contagion, only interdependence'. We show that this strong result in the literature is due to arbitrary and unrealistic restrictions on the variance of country-specific shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Other versions of this item:
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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