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Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence

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  • Mardi Dungey

    (Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance Judge Business School University of Cambridge Trumpington Street Cambridge, UK CB2 1AG and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Australian National University)

  • Renée Fry

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Australian National University Canberra, ACT, Australia 0200 and Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance University of Cambridge)

  • Vance L. Martin

    (Department of Economics University of Melbourne Parkville, VIC, Australia 3010)

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical literature on financial market contagion in Asia during the 1997-98 financial crises with respect to existing tests of contagion. Empirical evidence shows that contagion affects both developed and emerging markets and does not seem to vary with the relative fundamental economic health or trade and financial linkages of the Asian economies. Contagion occurs across both asset types and geographical borders and tends to have larger effects in equity markets than in currency and bond markets. There is evidence to support the hypothesis that contagion is regional and transmitted through developed markets. A discussion of the behavior of correlation coefficients in the presence of contagion and financial crises suggests that they are not a reliable metric for detecting contagion. (c) 2006 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 5 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 32-72

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:5:y:2006:i:2:p:32-72

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Cited by:
  1. Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010," CAMA Working Papers 2011-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "Shift versus traditional contagion in Asian markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp176, IIIS.
  4. Matesanz, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2008. "Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion," MPRA Paper 7720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Thomas J. Flavin and Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Detecting Shift and Pure Contagion in East Asian Equity Markets: A Unified Approach," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp236, IIIS.
  7. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
  8. Bowman, Robert G. & Chan, Kam Fong & Comer, Matthew R., 2010. "Diversification, rationality and the Asian economic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.
  9. Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls, 2009. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Textos para discussão 177, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Hans Manner & Bertrand Candelon, 2010. "Testing For Asset Market Linkages: A New Approach Based On Time-Varying Copulas," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 364-384, 08.

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