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Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis

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  • Summers, Peter M.

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  • Summers, Peter M., 2001. "Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 499-515.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:17:y:2001:i:3:p:499-515
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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. J. D. Pitchford, 1989. "A Sceptical View of Australia's Current Account and Debt Problem," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 5-14, June.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    5. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
    7. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    8. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    10. Terence C. Mills (ed.), 1999. "Economic Forecasting," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1506.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    12. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    14. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    15. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    16. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q1), pages 4-18.
    17. Peter M. Summers, 1999. "Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Melbourne Institute," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(2), pages 197-205, June.
    18. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn & Don Harding, 2001. "Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 698-711.
    3. Njenga, Carolyn Ndigwako & Sherris, Michael, 2020. "Modeling mortality with a Bayesian vector autoregression," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 40-57.
    4. de Silva, Ashton J, 2010. "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches," MPRA Paper 27411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    6. Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163, June.
    7. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn, 2004. "ow Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n30, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Heidari, Hassan, 2010. "An Estimated Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Model of the Australian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, December.
    9. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    10. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Prüser Jan & Hanck Christoph, 2021. "A Comparison of Approaches to Select the Informativeness of Priors in BVARs," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(4), pages 501-525, August.
    12. Carolyn Njenga & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Modeling Mortality with a Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 201105, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    13. Sean Langcake & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Forecasting the Australian economy with DSGE and BVAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 251-267, January.
    14. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn, 2005. "Policies to Reduce Unemployment: Simulations with Treasury Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 351-366, December.

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