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The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

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Author Info

  • Cartapanis, Andre
  • Dropsy, Vincent
  • Mametz, Sophie

Abstract

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 79-91

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:79-91

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Cited by:
  1. Chang Woon Nam, 2008. "What Happened to Korea Ten Years Ago?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 69-73, December.
  2. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
  3. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 25857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, June.
  5. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
  6. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "Growth effect of aid and its volatility: An individual country study in South Asian economies," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.
  7. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle
    [Early Warning Indicators of the 2000-2001 Turkish Financial Crisis: A Twin Crisi    ," MPRA Paper 25856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. André Cartapanis, 2003. "Vers une prévention macro-prudentielle des crises financières internationales," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 89-100.

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