Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

Contents:

Author Info

  • Cartapanis, Andre
  • Dropsy, Vincent
  • Mametz, Sophie

Abstract

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=roie&volume=10&issue=1&year=2002&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 79-91

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:79-91

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0965-7576

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  3. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "On the won and other East Asian currencies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
  7. Jeffrey R. Shafer & Bonnie E. Loopesko, 1983. "Floating Exchange Rates after Ten years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 1-86.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. A. J. Makin, 1989. "Is the Current Account Deficit Sustainable?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 29-33.
  10. Reisen, H, 1997. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Research Paper, World Institute for Development Economics Research 133, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
  11. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  13. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  16. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  17. John Page, 1994. "The East Asian Miracle: Four Lessons for Development Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 219-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  19. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now," MPRA Paper 13877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Carmen Reinhart & Mohsin S. Khan, 1995. "Capital Flows in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 122, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  24. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  25. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  27. Asea, Patrick K & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-Equilibrium Appraisal," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 244-67, October.
  28. Tony Makin, 1993. "Capital Market Integration and National Wealth," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(2), pages 61-70.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
  2. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.
  3. Dropsy V., 2001. "Emerging Stock Market Liberalization And Currency Crises," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 109-, January -.
  4. Cartapanis A. & Herland M., 2001. "Systemic Risk and New International Financial Architecture: Reconciling KEYNES and Neo-Liberalism?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 5-26, January -.
  5. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle
    [Early Warning Indicators of the 2000-2001 Turkish Financial Crisis: A Twin Crisi
    ," MPRA Paper 25856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Delphine Lahet, 2009. "Le repositionnement des pays émergents : de la crise financière asiatique de 1997 à la crise de 2008," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 275-306.
  7. Chang Woon Nam, 2008. "What Happened to Korea Ten Years Ago?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 69-73, December.
  8. Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, June.
  9. André Cartapanis, 2003. "Vers une prévention macro-prudentielle des crises financières internationales," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 89-100.
  10. Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
  11. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 25857, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:79-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.