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Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold

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  • Calvo, Guillermo A.
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.

Abstract

This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking-system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that 1/2 of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena. Large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self-fulfilling-prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions. These difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (November)
Pages: 235-264

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:41:y:1996:i:3-4:p:235-264

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  4. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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