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Analyzing and managing exchange-rate crises

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Author Info
Peter Kenen

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Abstract

This paper reviews theoretical work on exchange-rate crises and discusses recent attempts to reduce the risk of crises and manage them more effectively. Models usually used to explain crises—those in which they are due to bad policies and those in which they are due to self-fulfilling speculative attacks—do not often explain the timing of crises. Bad policies often play a role, but the onset of a crisis is frequently due to a political shock that leads market participants to revise their views about a government's ability to improve its policies. For this reason, efforts of the IMF to promote the publication of more economic data may not be very helpful in preventing crises. Turning to crisis management, the paper criticizes plans like those of Jeffrey Sachs, which would give soveregn debtors protection resembling that afforded by bankruptcy law. It favors instead the pragmatic approach developed in the report recently endorsed by the major industrial countries. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01886208
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 469-492
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:469-492

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates; debt; moratoria; IMF;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. F Gulcin Ozkan & Alan Sutherland, . "A Model of the ERM Crisis," Discussion Papers 94/2, Department of Economics, University of York.
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  6. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers 588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  9. Davies, Gareth & Vines, David, 1995. "Equilibrium Currency Crises: Are Multiple Equilibria Self-fulfilling or History Dependent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Manuel Agosin & Ricardo French-Davis, 1997. "Managing capital inflows in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 24(2 Year 19), pages 297-326, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," IMF Working Papers 95/127, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler & Robert Brandon Kahn, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
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  15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario & Chiara Oldani, 2000. "On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 149-175, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George Tavlas, 1996. "Currency crises: Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 431-436, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Julius Horvath, 1999. "The May 1997 Currency Crisis in the Czech Republic," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 277-298, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1997. "Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994," NBER Working Papers 5710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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