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Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico

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  • Kamin, Steven B.
  • Rogers, John H.

Abstract

Exchange-rate based stabilizations, while useful in accelerating the disinflation process, typically lead to overvalued exchange rates and large current account deficits. These factors, in turn, make it difficult to sustain exchange rate pegs, placing heaving demands upon monetary policy to sustain exchange-rate based programs in their later phases. This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation of the peso that December. Using econometric models of the demand for money, we find evidence that the high growth of the monetary base in 1994 reflected strong positive shocks to the demand for money, not to its supply. Next, we estimate a monetary policy reaction function for Mexico. Based on this estimate, we argue that interest rates rose only moderately less in 1994, in response to downward pressure on the peso and on international reserves, than was predicted by the authorities' reaction function. This result is qualified somewhat by our finding that if interest rates are modeled as reacting to reserves net of Tesobonos, rather than gross reserves, the measured deviation of actual from predicted interest rates would have been much greater. However, the relative complacency with which both the authorities and the market viewed the build-up in Tesobonos, at least until late in 1994, suggests that the reaction function based on net reserves probably does not capture "normal" monetary policy behavior. Our findings suggest that in order to have maintained the peg, the authorities would have needed to intensify their response to exchange market developments--that is, to alter their reaction function--at a time when concerns over the health of the banking sector, and of the economy more generally, would have pointed to a relaxation of monetary policy. Insofar as such tightenings of monetary reaction functions are difficult to achieve, Mexico's experience sug

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (November)
Pages: 285-307

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:41:y:1996:i:3-4:p:285-307

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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References

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  1. Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
  6. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  8. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 540, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
  11. Nora Lustig, . "The Mexican Peso Crisis: The Foreseeable and the Surprise," Discussion Papers 114, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  12. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico," Working Paper 2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework," International Finance Discussion Papers 617, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
  4. Kumhof, Michael, 2000. "A quantitative exploration of the role of short-term domestic debt in balance of payments crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 195-215, June.
  5. Joseph A. Whitt, Jr., 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 1-20.
  6. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
  7. Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1999. "The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises: A Revision of Mundellan Framework," NBER Working Papers 7045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
  10. Kolver Hernandez, 2006. "State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies," Working Papers 06-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  11. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2001. "Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 12-23.
  12. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1995. "Argentina, Mexico, and currency boards: another case of rules versus discretion," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 14-24.
  15. Melike Altinkemer, 2001. "Capital Inflows And Central Bank’s Policy Response," Discussion Papers 0103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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