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Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization

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Author Info
Vítor Castro () (Universidade de Coimbra and NIPE)
Francisco José Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

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Abstract

When the choice of the nominal anchor and timing of inflation stabilization is analyzed with models of political business cycles, there is room for political opportunism of policymakers. The different business cycles associated with exchange rate-based (ERBS) and money-based stabilizations (MBS) imply that the decision regarding the timing and nominal anchor of stabilization may be affected by the timing of elections. Namely, an opportunistic policymaker is more likely to implement an ERBS than a MBS before elections, while the opposite happens after elections. Empirical results obtained when estimating a multinomial logit model for a sample of 35 stabilization programs implemented in chronic inflation countries clearly support this hypothesis.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 9/2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:9/2002

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation stabilization; nominal anchors; political business cycles.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ernesto Stein and Jorge Streb., 1994. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-039, University of California at Berkeley.
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  6. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
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  7. Alesina, Alberto & Cukierman, Alex, 1990. "The Politics of Ambiguity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-50, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harrington, Joseph E, Jr, 1993. "Economic Policy, Economic Performance, and Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 27-42, March.
  10. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. David M. Gould, 1999. "Does the choice of nominal anchor matter?," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0499, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1988. "Inflationary rigidities and stabilization policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2003. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology and the Political Business Cycle," Emory Economics 0319, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Political Instability and Inflation Volatility," IMF Working Papers 06/212, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2006. "Does Opportunism Pay Off? A Study of Vote Functions and Policy Preferences," Emory Economics 0604, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  4. Francisco Joséveiga, 2005. "Does IMF Support Accelerate Inflation Stabilization?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 321-340, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Vítor Castro, 2003. "The Impact of Conflicts of Interest on Inflation Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 8/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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