IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nip/nipewp/8-2003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Conflicts of Interest on Inflation Stabilization

Author

Listed:
  • Vítor Castro

    (Universidade de Coimbra and NIPE)

Abstract

This paper tries to explain why high inflation levels persist during long periods of time, in several countries affected by chronic inflation, without the necessary corrective measures being implemented. Political models of conflict explain these delays as the result of coordination problems caused by collective choice-making mechanisms. The empirical results of a tobit model estimated over a panel of 10 countries affected by chronic inflation and covering 43 years of observations show that more fragmented political systems and those with a large number of parties represented in the parliament present greater delays of inflation stabilizations. Since higher fragmentation foments conflicts of interest, I conclude that such conflicts are one of the main causes of those delays in chronic inflation countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro, 2003. "The Impact of Conflicts of Interest on Inflation Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 8/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:8/2003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2003/NIPE_WP_8_2003.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. By A. Javier Hamann, 2001. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-4.
    2. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Casella, Alessandra & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilisation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 605-619, May.
    4. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1996. "Inflation's Children: Tales of Crises That Beget Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 213-217, May.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    6. Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 49-72, March.
    7. G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson, 1975. "Specification Errors in Limited Dependent Variable Models," NBER Working Papers 0096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Castro, Vitor & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2004. "Political business cycles and inflation stabilization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-6, April.
    9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1996. "The timing of stabilizations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 257-279.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
    11. Cukierman, Alex & Tommasi, Mariano, 1998. "When Does It Take a Nixon to Go to China?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 180-197, March.
    12. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1, March.
    13. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1996. "Optimal reform postponement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 299-307, September.
    15. Drazen, Allan & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "The Benefit of Crises for Economic Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 598-607, June.
    16. Pierre L. Siklos (ed.), 1995. "Great Inflations of the 20th Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 546.
    17. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-1155, December.
    18. Laban, Raul & Sturzenegger, Federico, 1994. "Fiscal conservatism as a response to the debt crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 305-324, December.
    19. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November.
    20. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    21. Raúl Labán & Federico Sturzenegger, 1994. "Distributional Conflict, Financial Adaptation And Delayed Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 257-276, November.
    22. Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Bargaining over reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1659-1676, October.
    23. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    24. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
    25. Haggard, Stephan & Webb, Steven B, 1993. "What Do We Know about the Political Economy of Economic Policy Reform?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 8(2), pages 143-168, July.
    26. Allan Drazen, 1996. "The political economy of delayed reform," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 25-46.
    27. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    28. Ball, Richard & Rausser, Gordon, 1995. "Governance structures and the durability of economic reforms: Evidence from inflation stabilizations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-912, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-1.
    2. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2014. "Conflict inflation and delayed stabilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 171-184.
    3. Francisco José Veiga, 2002. "IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations," NIPE Working Papers 2/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Martinelli, Cesar & Escorza, Raul, 2007. "When are stabilizations delayed? Alesina-Drazen revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1223-1245, July.
    5. Jose Veiga, Francisco, 1999. "What causes the failure of inflation stabilization plans?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 169-194, February.
    6. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2018. "Rational ignorance, populism, and reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 119-135.
    7. Esslinger, Christoph & Boyer, Pierre, 2015. "Public debt and the political economy of reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113107, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Francisco José Veiga, 2003. "The Political Economy of Failed Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 13/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Enrico Spolaore, 2004. "Adjustments in Different Government Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 117-146, July.
    10. Kontodaimon, Martha & Neumärker, Bernhard, 2015. "Two level reform game problems of Greece," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 03-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    11. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2013. "Rational Ignorance, Elections, and Reform," MPRA Paper 68638, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2015.
    12. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
    13. Castro, Vitor & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2004. "Political business cycles and inflation stabilization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-6, April.
    14. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Jalles, João Tovar & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-145.
    15. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2019. "Policy inertia, self-defeating expectations and structural reforms: can policy modeling cope?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 943-962.
    16. Dreher, Axel & Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M. & Somogyi, Frank, 2009. "The impact of political leaders' profession and education on reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 169-193, March.
    17. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Jakob Miethe, 2021. "Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 98-124, January.
    18. Mounir Mahmalat & Declan Curran, 2018. "Do Crises Induce Reform? A Critical Review Of Conception, Methodology And Empirical Evidence Of The €˜Crisis Hypothesis’," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 613-648, July.
    19. Micael Castanheira & Gaëtan Nicodème & Paola Profeta, 2012. "On the political economics of tax reforms: survey and empirical assessment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 598-624, August.
    20. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Structural adjustment, stabilization and policy reform: Domestic and international finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2845-2924, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Stabilization; Delays of Stabilizations; Conflicts of Interest; Tobit Model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:8/2003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: NIPE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nipampt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.