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IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations

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Author Info
Francisco José Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. Essentially, we test the hypothesis that IMF aid accelerates stabilization using probit and proportional hazards models. As in theoretical models, results are mixed: larger withdrawals of the amounts agreed to seem to hasten stabilization, but there is weak evidence that IMF arrangements lead to greater delays. Concerning other effects, greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization while higher inflation tends to hasten it. Other political and economic variables do not seem to have significant effects on the timing of stabilizations.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 2/2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:2/2002

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Related research
Keywords: IMF; stabilization; timing; politics.;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Alessandra Casella & Barry Eichengreen, 1994. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?," NBER Working Papers 4694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2002. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? Evidence from panel data," International Finance 0207002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-55, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1996. "The timing of stabilizations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 257-279. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  9. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  10. Drazen, Allan & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "The Benefit of Crises for Economic Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 598-607, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ball, Richard & Rausser, Gordon, 1995. "Governance structures and the durability of economic reforms: Evidence from inflation stabilizations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-912, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Bargaining over reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1659-1676, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dreher, Axel, 2005. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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