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Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? : Evidence from panel data

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  • Dreher, Axel
  • Vaubel, Roland

Abstract

Using panel data for 106 countries in 1971-1997, we estimate generalized least squares regressions to explain IMF lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's rate of monetary expansion and its government budget deficit is higher the less it has exhausted its borrowing potential in the Fund and the more credit it has received from the Fund. As for political business cycles, our evidence indicates that, even with a considerable number of control variables, IMF credits in the more democratic recipient countries are larger in pre-election and post-election years. Thus, IMF lending seems to facilitate the generation of political business cycles, while IMF conditionality may serve as a scapegoat for unpopular corrective measures after the election. The paper concludes with implications for IMF reform.

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Paper provided by Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre in its series Discussion Papers with number 598.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1013

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  2. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
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  7. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
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  10. Steven Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Faini, Riccardo & De Melo, Jaime & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel & Stanton, Julie, 1989. "Macro performance under adjustment lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 190, The World Bank.
  12. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
  13. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 155-70.
  14. Jurg Niehans, 1985. "International debt with unenforceable claims," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 64-79.
  15. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  16. Putnam, Robert D., 1988. "Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 427-460, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marchesi, Silvia & Sabani, Laura, 2007. "IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: Theory and empirics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 640-666, November.
  2. Bernhard Boockmann & Axel Dreher, 2002. "The Contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to Economic Freedom," International Finance 0207001, EconWPA.
  3. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions On Imf Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 177-213, 07.
  4. Michael M. Hutchison, . "A Cure Worse Than The Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," EPRU Working Paper Series 01-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Dreher, Axel, 2002. "The development and implementation of IMF and World Bank conditionality," HWWA Discussion Papers 165, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  6. Fratzscher, Marcel & Reynaud, Julien, 2011. "IMF surveillance and financial markets--A political economy analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 405-422, September.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Philippe Dulbecco, 2007. "The institutional failures of International Monetary Fund conditionality," Post-Print halshs-00238490, HAL.
  8. Ilan Noy, 2004. "Do IMF Bailouts Result in Moral Hazard? An Events-Study Approach," Working Papers 200402, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  9. Francisco José Veiga, 2002. "IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations," NIPE Working Papers 2/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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