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Which variables explain decisions on IMF credit? An extreme bounds analysis

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  • Sturm, Jan-Egbert
  • Berger, Helge
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998. Our results, based on Extreme Bounds Analysis, suggest that it are mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2004/15.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200415

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Keywords: IMF credit; political economy;

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  1. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bird, Graham, 2001. "IMF Programs: Do They Work? Can They be Made to Work Better?," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1849-1865, November.
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  4. Bevger, H. & Haan, J. de & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2000. "Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-82768, Tilburg University.
  5. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
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  7. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  8. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2003. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," International Finance, EconWPA 0310004, EconWPA, revised 08 Jan 2004.
  9. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  10. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2003. "Political Economy Influences Within the Life-Cycle of IMF Programmes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1255-1278, 09.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  12. Axel Dreher, 2004. "The Influence of IMF Programs on the Re-election of Debtor Governments," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 53-76, 03.
  13. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  14. Alex Mourmouras & Anna Ivanova & George C. Anayotos & Wolfgang Mayer, 2003. "What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?," IMF Working Papers 03/8, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
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