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Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons From the Bretton Woods Era

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards
Julio A. Santaella

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Abstract

This paper uses historical data from the Bretton Woods era to analyze the effectiveness of devaluation-based adjustment programs in the developing countries. Forty eight major devaluations undertaken between 1954 and 1971 are investigated in detail in an effort to understand the circumstances leading to these adjustment programs, as well as their degree of effectiveness. An important aspect of the analysis is the distinction between devaluations undertaken within the context of IMF programs, and devaluations implemented independently. We find out that, in general, countries with lower income per capita and deeper economic problems tended to seek IMF support with greater frequency. Also, our analysis indicates that countries with left-wing leaning governments were less likely to embark on IMF programs. With respect to the effectiveness of these devaluation programs, our findings support the notion that devaluations accompanied by restrictive and consistent macroeconomic policies are an efficient and powerful adjustment tool. Our historical investigation also shows that, in general, countries that embarked on IMF stand-by programs tended to perform better than countries that adjusted on their own.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4047.

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Date of creation: Apr 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4047

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  1. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 03-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Joseph P. Joyce, 2001. "Time present and time past: a duration analysis of IMF program spells," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  3. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2002. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? Evidence from panel data," International Finance 0207002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Introduction to "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 1-20 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carlos de Resende, 2007. "IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect," Working Papers 07-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Axel Dreher, 2004. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," International Finance 0404004, EconWPA, revised 25 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Stijn Claessens & Simeon Djankov & Tatiana Nenova, 1999. "Corporate growth and risk around the world," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
  10. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Nenova, Tatiana, 2000. "Corporate risk around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2271, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussiere, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Departmental Working Papers 199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Marcel Fratzscher, 1998. "Why are currency crises contagious? A comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 664-691, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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