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Credibility and Stabilization

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Dornbusch, Rudiger

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Abstract

When governments attempt stabilization why do they not undertake a programme certain to succeed? The paper discusses credibility when it is inconceivable that a programme will succeed with probability one. A cost-benefit analysis establishes an equilibrium programme that has some ex ante probability of failure, so that credibility is always less than full. The context is a one-shot game in which policy-makers are uncertain about the response of the instruments or the post-stabilization economic environment. As a positive theory of stabilization, the paper identifies the factors that increase the chances of success of a programme.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 454.

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Date of creation: Sep 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:454

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Related research
Keywords: Credibility; Stabilization;

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  1. Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, 1990. "Adjustment, investment, and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 473, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Farhad Noorbakhsh & Alberto Paloni, 2007. "Learning from structural adjustment: why selectivity may not be the key to successful programmes in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 927-948. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, 1997. "Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: The Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0424, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1991. "Adjustment programs and Bank support : rationale and main results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Hauner & Jirí Jonáš & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit--The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: The Role of Foreign Advisors," NBER Working Papers 11429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "The Political Economy of Infaliton and Stabilization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 4319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cesar Martinelli, 2001. "Essays on Political Economy of Political Reform," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000135, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francisco José Veiga, 2003. "The Political Economy of Failed Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 13/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  15. Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel & Stanton, Julie, 1990. "Growth oriented adjustment programs : a statistical analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 426, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Marchesi, S., 2000. "Buybacks of Domestic Debt in Public Debt Management," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 573, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1995. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage: an empirical implementation with a calibration approach," Working Papers 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  18. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-705, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  19. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Svensson, Jakob, 1997. "When is Foreign Aid Policy Credible? - Aid Dependence and Conditionality," Seminar Papers 600, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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