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The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

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Author Info
GRAHAM BIRD
DANE ROWLANDS

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Abstract

In recent years, the International Monetary Fund has seen a spate of critical analyses of its lending activities. It has even been suggested that politics influences the allocation of IMF lending with powerful industrialized countries being able to use Fund lending to further their own ambitions. We ask simple questions? Why did some countries borrow from the Fund when our models predicted that they would not? Why did other countries not borrow when our models predicted that they would? We resort to qualitative analysis of the individual cases to see whether we can retrospectively and reasonably explain our prediction failures.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The Journal of Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 173-186
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:173-186

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Related research
Keywords: International Monetary Fund; Imf Lending; Predicting Failures;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cornelius, Peter, 1987. "The demand for IMF credits by Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bird, Graham & Orme, Timothy, 1981. "An analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 563-568, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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