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Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes: application d'un modèle de durée

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  • Ariane TICHIT MINISCLOUX

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

After the political collapse of the former communist area, the Central and Eastern European countries, as well as the Former Soviet Union Republics have all experienced a reduction in GDP. At present, some of them have achieved macroeconomic stabilisation and economic revival, while others fail to curb the recession. This paper sheds light on the main factors responsible for this heterogeneity among the post-communist transition countries, thanks to an econometric analysis of a duration model. The estimated variable is the number of years spent in negative growth by each country, since the beginning of transition. The main results are that even if initial conditions played a significant role, the stabilisation, liberalisation and restructuration policies and the speed of their enforcement, had been the essential factors to economic revival.

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File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/1997/1997.19.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 199719.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:63

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Keywords: duration model; growth; Transition countries;

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