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Are stabilization programs expansionary?

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Author Info
Federico Echenique
Alvaro Forteza

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Abstract

The empirical evidence presented in this paper casts serious doubts on the by now widely accepted "stylized facts" of the exchange rate based stabilization programs (ERBS) as they are stated in Kiguel and Liviatan (1992) and in Végh (1992). Even though the ERBS programs were associated with output booms, no evidence of booms provoked by the stabilization programs is found. Rather, exogenous capital inflows to Latin America seem to have caused both the output booms and the stabilization programs. Other stylized facts, namely that the ERBS programs cause real exchange rate appreciations and trade account deficits are not rejected by the analysis presented in this paper.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0196.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0196

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alessandra Casella & Barry Eichengreen, 1994. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?," NBER Working Papers 4694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Alejandro Nin & María Inés Terra, 1996. "Mercosur: un camino a la apertura o la consolidación de un bloque cerrado?," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0996, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "The capital inflows problem: Concepts and issues," MPRA Paper 13902, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1996. "The timing of stabilizations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 257-279. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Marcel Vaillant, 1996. "El GATT 94 y la Organización Mundial del Comercio. Una nueva agenda para Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0496, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  12. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 1997. "Are Stabilization Programs Expansionary?," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0497, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  14. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues," IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments 93/10, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Elvio Accinelli & Martín Puchet, 1996. "An application of the catastrophe theory in general equilibrium theory," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0296, Department of Economics - dECON.
  20. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alvaro Forteza, 1995. "Welfare state dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0896, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ari Aisen, 2004. "Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Space for Political Opportunism?," IMF Working Papers 04/94, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alvaro Forteza & Martín Rama, 2000. "Labor Market "Rigidity" and the Success of Economic Reforms Across more than One Hundred Countries," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0600, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Walter García Fontes & Ruben Tansini, 1996. "The effects of trade liberalization on R&D investments: the case of the Uruguayan manufacturing industry," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0396, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alvaro Forteza & Martín Rama, 2006. "Labor Market 'Rigidity’ and the Success of Economic Reforms Across More Than 100 Countries," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 75-105, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 1996. "Are stabilization programs expansionary?," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0196, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
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