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Habit formation and the comovement of prices and consumption during exchange-rate based stabilization programs

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  • Martin Uribe

Abstract

A defining stylized fact associated with exchange-rate-based (ERB) stabilization programs is that their initial phase is characterized by several years of expansion in private consumption and a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate. In this paper, I argue that standard optimizing models are unable to account for this empirical regularity, as they predict that, except for the date of announcement of the program, an appreciation of the real exchange rate must necessarily be accompanied by a decline in consumption. I show that this price-consumption problem can be resolved by relaxing the assumption of time separability in preferences. Specifically, under habit formation a permanent ERB program generates a smooth boom in consumption and gradual real exchange rate appreciation. A temporary program induces, in addition, a smooth boom-recession cycle with the recession beginning before the abandonment of the program.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 598.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:598

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Keywords: Consumption (Economics) ; Prices ; Foreign exchange;

References

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  1. Jorge Roldos, 1993. "On Credible Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 93/90, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1988. "Costly Trade Liberalizations: Durable Goods and Capital Mobility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 461-473, September.
  5. Amartya Lahiri, 1996. "Exchange Rate Based Stabilizations Under Real Frictions: The role of endagenous labor supply," UCLA Economics Working Papers 759, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1991. "The demand for money in developing countries : assessing the role of financial innovation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 721, The World Bank.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1985. "The Capital Inflows Problem Revisited: A Stylized Model of Southern Cone Disinflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 605-25, October.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  9. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
  10. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-61, December.
  14. Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1985. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradoffs," NBER Working Papers 1590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  17. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jung, Yongseung, 2000. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 541-580, October.

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