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IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality

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Author Info
Axel Dreher (ETH Zürich)

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Abstract

In theory, the IMF could influence economic growth via several channels, among them advice to policy makers, money disbursed under its programs, and its conditionality. This paper tries to separate those effects empirically. Using panel data for 98 countries over the period 1970-2000 it analyzes whether IMF involvement influences economic growth in program countries. Consistent with the results of previous studies, it is shown that IMF programs reduce growth rates when their endogeneity is accounted for. There is also evidence that compliance with conditionality mitigates this negative effect, while the overall impact, however, remains negative. IMF loans have no robust statistically significant impact.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0404004.

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Date of creation: 07 Apr 2004
Date of revision: 25 Apr 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0404004

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Related research
Keywords: IMF programs; growth; compliance; conditionality;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2003. "The Causes and Consequences of IMF Conditionality," International Finance 0309004, EconWPA, revised 17 Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael P. Dooley & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dool03-1.
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    Other versions:
  10. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  14. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Easterly, William, 2005. "What did structural adjustment adjust?: The association of policies and growth with repeated IMF and World Bank adjustment loans," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  20. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Bird, Graham, 2001. "IMF Programs: Do They Work? Can They be Made to Work Better?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1849-1865, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Haggard, Stephan, 1985. "The politics of adjustment: lessons from the IMF's Extended Fund Facility," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 505-534, June. [Downloadable!]
  23. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Axel Dreher, 2004. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard? A critical review of the evidence," International Finance 0402003, EconWPA, revised 29 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Graham Bird, 2002. "The Completion Rate of IMF Programmes: What We Know, Don't Know and Need to Know," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 833-847, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Faini, Riccardo & De Melo, Jaime & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel & Stanton, Julie, 1989. "Macro performance under adjustment lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 190, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Axel Dreher, 2002. "Does Globalization Affect Growth?," Development and Comp Systems 0210004, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2003. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Working Papers 12235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Francisco Joséveiga, 2005. "Does IMF Support Accelerate Inflation Stabilization?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 321-340, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rainer Thiele & Peter Nunnenkamp & Axel Dreher, 2006. "Sectoral Aid Priorities: Are Donors Really Doing their Best to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals?," KOF Working papers 06-124, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Axel Dreher & Thomas Herzfeld, 2005. "The Economic Costs of Corruption: A Survey and New Evidence," Public Economics 0506001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rouben Atoian & Alex Mourmouras & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2004. "Institutions, Program Implementation, and Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 04/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Hopp & Axel Dreher, 2007. "Do Differences in Institutional and Legal Environments Explain Cross-Country Variations in IPO Underpricing?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2005. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," KOF Working papers 05-118, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2007. "Does Terror Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-156, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2007. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," Monash Economics Working Papers 31/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does the IMF Influence Fiscal and Monetary Policy?," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 225-238, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jiro Honda, 2008. "Do IMF Programs Improve Economic Governance?," IMF Working Papers 08/114, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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