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Adoption of an IMF Programme and Debt Rescheduling. An Empirical Analysis

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Author Info
Silvia Marchesi (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

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Abstract

The existence of an empirical relationship between the adoption of an IMF programme and the concession of a debt rescheduling by commercial creditors is tested using a bivariate probit model. If countries who have arrangements with the IMF are more likely than others to obtain a rescheduling of their external debt we could conclude that the adoption of an IMF programme could work as a sort of signal of a country’s “good willingness”, which is thus rewarded with the debt relief. The results confirm the existence of a significant effect of the adoption of an IMF programme on the subsequent concession of a debt rescheduling by creditors.

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Paper provided by Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano in its series Development Working Papers with number 152.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:152

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Related research
Keywords: IMF Conditionality; Debt Rescheduling; Bivariate probit;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Lanoie, Paul & Lemarbre, Sylvain, 1996. "Three Approaches to Predict the Timing and Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 241-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cornelius, Peter, 1987. "The demand for IMF credits by Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & McKenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1990. "Predicting the quantity of LDC debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 67-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bird, Graham & Orme, Timothy, 1981. "An analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 563-568, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Backer, Arno, 1992. "Country balance sheet data vs. traditional macro variables in a logit model to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 207-212, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Anthony R. Boote & Kamau Thugge, 1997. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative," IMF Working Papers 97/24, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Working Papers 12235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2006. "Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence IMF Decisions? Evidence from Panel Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Benelli, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? The Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/231, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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