This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? Evidence from panel data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Axel Dreher (University of Mannheim)
Roland Vaubel (University of Mannheim)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Using panel data for 106 countries in 1971-1997, we estimate generalized least squares regressions to explain IMF lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's rate of monetary expansion and its government budget deficit is higher the less it has exhausted its borrowing potential in the Fund and the more credit it has received from the Fund. Moreover, the budget deficit is shown to be larger the higher the interest subsidy offered by the IMF. As for political business cycles, our evidence indicates that, even with a considerable number of control variables, IMF credits in the more democratic recipient countries are larger in pre-election and post-election years. Thus, IMF lending seems to facilitate the generation of political business cycles, while IMF conditionality may serve as a scapegoat for unpopular corrective measures after the election. The paper concludes with implications for IMF reform.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/if/papers/0207/0207002.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0207002.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 24 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0207002

Note: Type of Document - ; prepared on PC; figures: included
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords: IMF programs; political business cycles; moral hazard;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2), pages 155-70.
  3. Timothy D. Lane & Steven Phillips, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jurg Niehans, 1985. "International debt with unenforceable claims," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 64-79. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, . "Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? Evidence from panel data," IVS discussion paper series 598, Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Banks, Short Term Debt and Financial Crises: Theory, Policy Implications and Applications."," CRSP working papers 518, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  8. Putnam, Robert D, 1988. "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 42(3), pages 427-60, Summer.
  9. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Bird, Graham & Orme, Timothy, 1981. "An analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 563-568, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. " Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Faini, Riccardo & De Melo, Jaime & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel & Stanton, Julie, 1989. "Macro performance under adjustment lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 190, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 1997. "The Catalytic Effect of Lending by the International Financial Institutions," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(7), pages 967-991, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Putnam, Robert D., 1988. "Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 427-460, June. [Downloadable!]
  18. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ilan Noy, 2004. "Do IMF Bailouts Result in Moral Hazard? An Events-Study Approach," Working Papers 200402, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Silvia Marchesi & Laura Sabani, 2005. "IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: theory and empirics," Department of Economics University of Siena 447, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2002. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? Evidence from panel data," International Finance 0207002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dreher, Axel, . "The Influence of Elections on Compliance with World Bank Conditionality and IMF Program Interruptions," IVS discussion paper series 604, Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  5. Axel Dreher, 2002. "The Development and Implementation of IMF and World Bank Conditionality," International Finance 0207003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael M. Hutchison, . "A Cure Worse Than The Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," EPRU Working Paper Series 01-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Boockmann, Bernhard & Dreher, Axel, 2002. "The Contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to Economic Freedom," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-18, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Francisco José Veiga, 2002. "IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations," NIPE Working Papers 2/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use convenient plug-ins to search directly IDEAS from your browser.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.