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Adoption of an IMF Programme and Debt Rescheduling. An Empirical Analysis

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  • Marchesi, Silvia

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

The existence of an empirical relationship between the adoption of an IMF programme and the concession of a debt rescheduling by commercial and official creditors is tested using a bivariate probit model. If countries who have arrangements with the IMF are more likely than others to obtain a rescheduling of their external debt we could conclude that the adoption of an IMF programme could work as a sort of signal of a country’s “good willingness”, which is thus rewarded with the debt relief. The results confirm the existence of a significant effect of the adoption of an IMF programme on the subsequent concession of a debt rescheduling by creditors.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/twerp542.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 542.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:542

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Keywords: IMF Conditionality ; Debt Rescheduling ; Bivariate probit;

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  1. Cornelius, Peter, 1987. "The demand for IMF credits by Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-102.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? a Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December.
  4. Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Backer, Arno, 1992. "Country balance sheet data vs. traditional macro variables in a logit model to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 207-212, February.
  6. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
  7. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March.
  8. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  9. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46, July.
  10. Bird, Graham & Orme, Timothy, 1981. "An analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 563-568, June.
  11. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & McKenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1990. "Predicting the quantity of LDC debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 67-73, January.
  12. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
  13. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
  14. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  15. Kamau Thugge & Anthony R. Boote, 1997. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative," IMF Working Papers 97/24, International Monetary Fund.
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