Over-optimism and the IMF
AbstractOne way of assessing the impact of IMF programmes is to see whether performance and policy targets are achieved. However, does a failure to hit targets mean that the programmes have been unsuccessful, or could it be that targets have been too ambitious? This paper analyses political economy factors impinging on governments and on the IMF that may lead to serial over-optimism. It goes on to examine the empirical evidence that is consistent with over-optimism. Having considered whether over-optimism is a cause for concern, and concluded that it is, the paper considers reforms that would allow realism to replace it. By eliminating over-optimism it is argued that the psychology of failure surrounding IMF programmes could be significantly reduced or even broken. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2005.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0505.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
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- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
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