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Does the IMF cause moral hazard? A critical review of the evidence

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Author Info
Axel Dreher

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Abstract

The paper provides a critical review of empirical studies on IMF induced moral hazard. Taken together, there is considerable evidence that the insurance provided by the Fund leads to moral hazard with investors in bond markets, while moral hazard in equity markets has so far not been convincingly tested. Debtor moral hazard has much less frequently been investigated, and the counterfactual is more difficult to construct. There is, however, evidence that debtor governments’ policies are negatively influenced by the insurance. Their policies are more expansive leading to higher probabilities of IMF programs and shorter inter-program-periods.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0402003.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 2004
Date of revision: 29 Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0402003

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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew G Haldane & J"rg Scheibe, . "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Prasanna Gai & Ashley Taylor, 2004. "International financial rescues and debtor country moral hazard," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 34, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Isabel Schnabel & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ali M. Kutan & Ayse Y. Evrensel, 2004. "Creditor Moral Hazard in Equity Markets: A Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Indonesia and Korea," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-659, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  6. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Boockmann, Bernhard & Dreher, Axel, 2003. "The contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to economic freedom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 633-649, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2005. "IMF Bailouts and Moral Hazard," International Finance 0501005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jun Il Kim, 2007. "Unconditional IMF Financial Support and Investor Moral Hazard," IMF Working Papers 07/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Oscar Bernal & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," Working Papers CEB 08-015.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Axel Dreher, 2004. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," International Finance 0404004, EconWPA, revised 25 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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