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Does the IMF cause moral hazard? A critical review of the evidence

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  • Axel Dreher

Abstract

The paper provides a critical review of empirical studies on IMF induced moral hazard. Taken together, there is considerable evidence that the insurance provided by the Fund leads to moral hazard with investors in bond markets, while moral hazard in equity markets has so far not been convincingly tested. Debtor moral hazard has much less frequently been investigated, and the counterfactual is more difficult to construct. There is, however, evidence that debtor governments’ policies are negatively influenced by the insurance. Their policies are more expansive leading to higher probabilities of IMF programs and shorter inter-program-periods.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0402/0402003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0402003.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 2004
Date of revision: 29 Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0402003

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References

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  1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Isabel Schnabel, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ashley Taylor & Prasanna Gai, 2004. "International financial rescues and debtor-country moral hazard," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 561, Econometric Society.
  3. Boockmann, Bernhard & Dreher, Axel, 2002. "The Contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to Economic Freedom," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-18, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Dreher, Axel, 2005. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  5. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  6. Ali M. Kutan & Ayse Y. Evrensel, 2004. "Creditor Moral Hazard in Equity Markets: A Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Indonesia and Korea," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-659, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Andrew G Haldane & Jorg Scheibe, 2004. "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England.
  8. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120.
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Cited by:
  1. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
  2. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," DULBEA Working Papers 09-01.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Jörg Guido Hülsmann, 2006. "The political economy of moral hazard," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(1), pages 35-47.
  4. Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2005. "IMF Bailouts and Moral Hazard," International Finance 0501005, EconWPA.
  5. Jun Il Kim, 2007. "Unconditional IMF Financial Support and Investor Moral Hazard," IMF Working Papers 07/104, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Noy, Ilan, 2008. "Sovereign default risk, the IMF and creditor moral hazard," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 64-78, February.
  7. Reynaud, Julien & Vauday, Julien, 2009. "Geopolitics and international organizations: An empirical study on IMF facilities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 139-162, May.

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