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Does the IMF Influence Fiscal and Monetary Policy?

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  • Axel Dreher

Abstract

In theory, the IMF could influence fiscal and monetary policy via several channels, among them advice to policy makers, conditionality, and the moral hazard it induces with the borrowers. This article tries to disentangle those effects empirically. Using panel data for 98 countries over the period 1975-2000 it analyzes whether IMF involvement indeed influences fiscal and monetary policy in program countries. There is evidence that participation in IMF Standby and Extended Fund Facility arrangements improves economic policy. Money disbursed and the degree to which a program is implemented does not have any systematic influence. The same is true for future availability of resources as measured by exhaustion of a country's quota with the Fund. The final section discusses policy implications.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 225-238

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:225-238

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Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?id=300262

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Related research

Keywords: IMF programs; fiscal policy; monetary policy; compliance; conditionality; moral hazard;

References

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  1. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2003. "The Causes and Consequences of IMF Conditionality," International Finance 0309004, EconWPA, revised 17 Oct 2003.
  2. Dollar, David & Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programmes?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 894-917, October.
  3. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  4. Axel Dreher, 2004. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," TWI Research Paper Series 1, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  5. Roland Vaubel & Axel Dreher & Uğurlu Soylu, 2007. "Staff growth in international organizations: A principal-agent problem? An empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 275-295, December.
  6. Boockmann, Bernhard & Dreher, Axel, 2002. "The Contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to Economic Freedom," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-18, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Michele FRATIANNI & John PATTISON, 2007. "Who Is Runninc the IMF: Critical Shareholders or the Staff?," Working Papers 279, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  8. Axel Dreher, 2004. "A Public Choice Perspective of IMF and World Bank Lending and Conditionality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(3_4), pages 445-464, 06.
  9. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  10. Graham Bird & Thomas D Willett, 2004. "IMF Conditionality, Implementation and the New Political Economy of Ownership," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 423-450, September.
  11. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  12. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120.
  13. Axel Dreher, 2004. "The Influence of IMF Programs on the Re-election of Debtor Governments," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 53-76, 03.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. James Vreeland, 2006. "IMF program compliance: Aggregate index versus policy specific research strategies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 359-378, December.
  2. Jorra, Markus, 2012. "The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 709-725.
  3. Bandeira, Pablo, 2009. "El desarrollo institucional en el contexto de la ineficacia de la ayuda: ¿qué podemos hacer?
    [Promoting institutional development in the context of actual aid ineffectiveness: what can we do?]    ," MPRA Paper 13372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2006. "Evaluating the impact of IMF programs: A comparison of matching and instrumental-variable estimators," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 99-124, June.
  5. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  6. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2005. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," KOF Working papers 05-118, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  7. Graham Bird, 2008. "The implementation of IMF programs: A conceptual framework," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 41-64, March.

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