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Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations

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  • Hutchison, Michael M.
  • Noy, Ilan

Abstract

We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is entirely driven by the experiences in Latin America.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 7 (December)
Pages: 991-1014

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:22:y:2003:i:7:p:991-1014

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Axel Dreher, 2008. "IMF Conditionality: Theory and Evidence," KOF Working papers 08-188, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "Imf Drawing Programs," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Barry J. Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 06/101, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Michael Binder & Marcel Bluhm, 2010. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3161, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Pressures in Latin America: Does Debt Matter?," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1307, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  6. Sánchez, Elmer, 2013. "Grado de inversión y flujos de inversión directa extranjera a economías emergentes," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 61-79.
  7. Zungun Deniz & Ortanca Murat & Kirli Mustafa & Cura Serkan, 2013. "The End Of Imf - Turkey Relationship," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 183-192, July.
  8. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
  9. ORASTEAN Ramona, 2014. "The Lending Arrangements Of The Imf In European Union In Times Of Crisis – Characteristics And Evolutions," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 134-141, April.
  10. Yasemin Bal-Gunduz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/263, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Michael M. Hutchison, 2004. "Selection Bias and the Output Costs of IMF Programs," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-15, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Reynaud, Julien & Vauday, Julien, 2009. "Geopolitics and international organizations: An empirical study on IMF facilities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 139-162, May.
  13. Noy, Ilan, 2008. "Sovereign default risk, the IMF and creditor moral hazard," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 64-78, February.
  14. Javed, Omer, 2014. "Institutional quality, macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth: a case study of IMF programme countries," MPRA Paper 56370, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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