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Promises Made, Promises Broken: A Model Of Imf Program Implementation

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Author Info
JOSEPH P. JOYCE

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of the implementation of IMF programs, which is empirically tested with data from the period 1975-1999. The IMF and the borrowing country are shown to have asymmetric evaluations of a program's discounted benefits, due to differences in the measurement of the benefits, the relevant time frame and appropriate discount rate. The model also distinguishes between a government that seeks to maximize national welfare and an autocracy that seeks only to benefit the ruling group. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that program implementation is affected by a country's trade openness, the ideological cohesion of the government, the duration of the political regime, and the degree of political openness. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0343.2006.00173.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Economics & Politics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 339-365
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:18:y:2006:i:3:p:339-365

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  1. Axel Dreher, 2008. "IMF Conditionality: Theory and Evidence," KOF Working papers 08-188, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Olivier Jeanne & Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 08/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Silvia Marchesi & Laura Sabani, 2005. "IMF Concern for Reputation and Conditional Lending Failure: Theory and Empirics," Development Working Papers 206, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Axel Dreher, 2004. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," International Finance 0404004, EconWPA, revised 25 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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