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European exchange rate credibility before the fall

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  • Rose, Andrew K.
  • Svensson, Lars E. O.

Abstract

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables, although there are signs that lower inflation improves credibility. Statistically, many movements to realignment expectations are common to ERM participants. There were few indications of poor ERM credibility before late August 1992; the dimensions of the currency crisis of September 1992 appear to have taken both policy-makers and private agents largely by surprise.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 38 (1994)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1185-1216

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:38:y:1994:i:6:p:1185-1216

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  2. Kenneth Froot & Kenneth Rogoff & Olivier Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, . "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," Working Paper 32216, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  3. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  4. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  8. Vincent Koen, 1991. "Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy," IMF Working Papers 91/79, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter.
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