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On the won and other East Asian currencies

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  • Menzie David Chinn

Abstract

A sticky price monetary model (Frankel, 1979) of exchange rates is applied to quarterly data on seven currencies: the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht. The model proves empirically unsuccessful, except in the case of the baht, and to a lesser extent, the Singapore dollar. A monetary model, augmented by the relative price of nontradables, is developed. This relative price variable proxies for the Balassa-Samuelson effect in East Asian real exchange rates identified in Chinn (1997b). The Korean won is best described by this modified model, while the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and Taiwanese dollar also fit the model's long run predictions. On the other hand, the Malaysian ringgit proves difficult to econometrically model. This inability is disappointing because these two currencies have recently been allowed to float more freely.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 97-07.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:97-07

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Keywords: Won; Korean ; Econometric models ; Foreign exchange rates ; East Asia;

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References

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  1. Chinn, M.D., 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Papers 97-06, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  2. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Capital flows and monetary policy in East Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  5. Menzie Chinn & William Maloney, 1995. "Financial and capital account liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's," International Finance 9508005, EconWPA.
  6. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  7. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  8. Menzie Chinn & Michael Dooley, 1995. "Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working papers 167, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987. "Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Economics Working Papers 8752, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  14. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
  15. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  16. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  17. Robert Dekle & Mahmood Pradhan, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in ASEAN Countries: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 97/36, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. " The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 255-75.
  20. Louis Dorrance Johnston & Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/66, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  22. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Rhee, Hyun-Jae, 1996. "Time-Series Support for Balassa's Productivity-Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from Korea," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 364-70, October.
  23. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  24. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Cartapanis, Andre & Dropsy, Vincent & Mametz, Sophie, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-563, September.
  4. Balázs Égert, 2013. "Dutch Disease in the Post-Soviet Countries of Central and South-West Asia: How Contagious is it?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-10, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 17074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Renu Kohli & Kenneth Kletzer, 2004. "Exchange RAte Dynamics with Financial Repression: A Test of Exchange Rate Models for India," International Finance 0405013, EconWPA.
  7. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
  9. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1292-1310, December.
  10. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp955, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Chinn, Menzie David & Dooley, Michael P., 1999. "International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-384.
  12. Karl Whelan, 2013. "Sovereign Default and the Euro," Working Papers 201309, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  13. Andre Varella Mollick & Margot Quijano, 2004. "The Mexican Peso And The Korean Won Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Productivity Models," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 189-208, June.

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