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Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity

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Menzie Chinn
Michael Dooley

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Abstract

The apparent success of several East Asian countries in sterilizing capital inflows seems to contradict findings of high capital mobility. This paper argues that empirical studies examining money market rates may be misleading, since most lending is mediated through domestic banking systems. In developing countries with repressed domestic financial markets bank deposit yields might be closely tied to international interest rates but bank loan rates might be more independent. A simple open-economy macro model incorporating bank credit is used to motivate alternative tests of financial market integration. Capital inflows are found to affect bank lending in cases where deposit and loan markets are integrated with world markets and hence sterilization is not effective. In cases where loan rates are more independent sterilization seems to be more effective. Next, we examine the effect of bank lending on economic activity. The data suggest that the link between bank credit and investment is important in countries with isolated bank loan markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5280.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5280

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic activity and the short-term credit markets: an analysis of prices and quantities," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  4. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 94/39, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 149-214. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cara S. Lown, 1988. "The credit-output link vs. the money-output link: new evidence," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 1-10.
  8. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Capital flows and monetary policy in East Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  11. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1992. "Towards Capital Account Convertibility," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 4, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Browne, Francis X. & McNelis, Paul D., 1990. "Exchange controls and interest rate determination with traded and non-traded assets: the Irish-United Kingdom experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 41-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," IMF Working Papers 94/159, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Fackler, James S. & Rogers, John H., 1993. "An empirical open-economy macro model with credit," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 203-224. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark, 1995. "The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements on Investment and GNP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 511-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson, 1992. "Exchange rate policy, financial structure, and the transition from credit to monetary instruments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  17. Sun Bae Kim, 1993. "Do capital controls affect the response of investment to saving? evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 23-39. [Downloadable!]
  18. Mark M. Spiegel, 1995. "Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1993. "Credit channel or credit actions? an interpretation of the postwar transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 71-149.
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  20. Hamid Faruqee, 1991. "Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries - Estimation and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 91/115, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Reisen, Helmut & Yeches, Helene, 1993. "Time-varying estimates on the openness of the capital account in Korea and Taiwan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 285-305, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & William F. Maloney, 1996. "Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's," NBER Working Papers 5814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley & Sona Shrestha, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Regional Vulnerability : The Case of East Asia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 776, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?," NBER Working Papers 6092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "On the won and other East Asian currencies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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