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Author Info
Mody, Ashoka
Taylor, Mark P

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Abstract

We pursue the idea that a region presents a common ‘prospectus’ to investors and lenders. Specifically, we explore whether investors respond to regional developments, rather than to country-specific fundamentals. Such behaviour may be appropriate where regions are identified by common development strategies and economic policies, and the costs of country-specific analysis exceed the returns. Using dynamic factor analysis, we estimate a common regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional vulnerability. We find that a high level of regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets generates regional vulnerabilities, which are heightened when the US High Yield Index is also on the rise. Country-specific movements of the EMPI are also explained by the same regional indicators rather than by the country-specific components of these indicators.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3759.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3759

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Related research
Keywords: contagion; currency crisis; dynamic factor analysis; vulnerability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  7. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Wayne Wu, 1999. "The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 44, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Francesco Caramazza & Luca Antonio Ricci & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Chinn, Menzie D, 1999. "On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 113-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
  17. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Menzie Chinn & Michael Dooley, 1995. "Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Mark Taylor & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role Of Informational Asymmetries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 113, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion-Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Contagion," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(7), pages 873-900, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Working Papers 12235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119. [Downloadable!]
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