Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gus Garita
  • Chen Zhou

Abstract

By proposing a measure for cross-market rebalancing effects, we provide new insights into the different sources of currency crises. We address three interrelated questions: (i) How can we best capture contagion; (ii) Is the contagion of currency crisis a regional or global phenomenon?; and (iii) By controlling for “cross-market rebalancing” do other mechanisms like "financial openness" increase the probability of a currency crisis? We introduce the concept of conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF) to measure the linkages of currency crisis intra- and inter-regionally. From estimating this measure, we test for contagion and conclude that contagion only exists regionally. Furthermore, we construct a “cross-market rebalancing” variable based on the regional CPJF. By employing a probit model to compare our new variable with a regular contagion variable often used in literature, we conclude that our new variable captures contagion better; moreover, it also captures cross-market rebalancing effects. When we properly account for these effects, then financial openness helps to diminish the probability of a currency crisis even after controlling for the onset of a banking crisis. We also show that monetary policy geared towards price stability reduces the probability of a currency crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20205_tcm46-212965.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 205.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:205

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Crisis; Contagion; Cross-Market Rebalancing; Exchange Market Pressure; Extreme Value Theory; Financial Integration.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
  3. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  4. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
  5. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
  6. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  9. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
  12. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1999. "Financial Sector Inefficiencies and Coordinate Failures: Implications for Crisis Management," NBER Working Papers 7446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  14. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
  16. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  17. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
  18. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  21. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  22. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
  23. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Garita, Gus, 2009. "How Does Financial Openness Affect Economic Growth and its Components?," MPRA Paper 20099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Maarten R.C. van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2011. "The simple econometrics of tail dependence," DNB Working Papers 296, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Garita, Gus, 2010. "An Inquiry into Banking Portfolios and Financial Stability Surrounding "The Great Recession"," MPRA Paper 25996, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Garita, Gus, 2009. "Risk-Factor Portfolios and Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 19611, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Dec 2009.
  6. Garita, Gus, 2011. "The reciprocal relationship between systemic risk and real economic activity," MPRA Paper 33135, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.