Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Andrea Cipollini

    ()
    (University of Essex)

  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997-1998 period. The Dynamic factor model improves upon a number of competing model, in terms of out of sample forecasting performance

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.30600.1141218104.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 477.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:477

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://comp-econ.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Financial Contagion; Dynamic Factor Model; Stochastic Simulation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Documentos de Trabajo 59, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2008. "Extremum Estimation when the Predictors are Estimated from Large Panels," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 201-222, November.
  6. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 0712, European Central Bank.
  7. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1, October.
  8. Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2003. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 727-754, 05.
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Working Papers 05-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  14. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
  16. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25 - 37.
  18. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
  19. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 5.
  20. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  21. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  22. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  23. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  24. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA.
  27. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2003. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Financial Contagion in Asia," Working Papers 498, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  30. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
  32. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
  33. Evan Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
  34. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers - A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  2. Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mauricio Medeiros Junior, 2012. "Contagion in CDS, Banking and Equity Markets," Working Papers Series 293, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Briceño Avalos, Hernán Ricardo, 2003. "Tipos de Cambio Cuasi-fijo y Posibilidad de Crisis Financieras: Solarizar o Dolarizar la Economía Peruana?
    [Fixed Exchange Rates and Possibilities of Financial Crisis: Solarizar or Dollarization o
    ," MPRA Paper 42029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
  5. Corder, Matthew & Weale, Martin, 2011. "Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?," Discussion Papers 33, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.