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A rational expectations model of financial contagion

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  • Laura E. Kodres
  • Matthew Pritsker
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    Abstract

    We develop a multiple asset rational expectations model of asset prices to study the determinants of financial market contagion, and to provide an explanation for the pattern of contagion during the Asian financial crisis. Our findings show that the pattern and severity of financial contagion depends on the size of markets' sensitivities to common macroeconomic risk factors. The amount of information asymmetry within a financial market also increases its susceptibility to contagion. We focus on contagion through the cross-market hedging of macroeconomic risks. Through this channel, idiosyncratic shocks in one market are transmitted to others. Interestingly, contagion can occur between markets that have no macroeconomic risks in common. In addition, contagion occurs in the absence of any news, and before the macroeconomic risk factors are realized. Because contagion occurs through hedging, the pattern of contagion is strongly influenced by the presence or absence of derivatives markets for unbundling and hedging the macroeconomic risks. Errors in market participants' beliefs about dynamic hedging activity influence the pattern of contagion and, in some cases, strongly magnify the size of the contagious price responses.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-48.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-48

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    Related research

    Keywords: Rational expectations (Economic theory) ; Financial markets ; Risk;

    References

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 97/127, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1999. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 99-23, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    4. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
    6. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
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    12. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley.
    13. T. Todd Smith & Garry J. Schinasi, 1999. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/136, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
    15. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
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    18. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Zhaohui Chen, 1998. "Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch as a Result of Inefficient Financial Intermediation—with Reference to the Asian Financial Crisis," International Finance 9804001, EconWPA, revised 24 Apr 1998.
    19. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    20. Wang, Jiang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 249-82, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio, 1999. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises - do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2259, The World Bank.
    2. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2000. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gil Mehrez & Daniel Kaufmann, 2003. "Transparency, Liberalization and Financial Crises," Finance 0308008, EconWPA.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-34, May.
    9. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Differences of Opinion, Rational Arbitrage and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 7376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kawai, Masahiro & Newfarmer, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Crisis and contagion in East Asia : nine lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2610, The World Bank.
    11. Mehrez, Gil & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2000. "Transparency, liberalization, and banking crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2286, The World Bank.
    12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mongi Gharsellaoui, 2013. "Subprime Crisis and Financial Contagion: Evidence from Tunisia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 153-162.

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