Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises
AbstractThis paper examines the major interest groups in the debate over allowing the wholesale re-importation of prescription drugs through the Pharmaceutical Market Access Act. By making use of the logit model, we see the effects that each of these groups has had on the voting behavior of the 108 th Congress on the bill. We find evidence suggesting that Representatives are maximizing their electoral prospects: Contributions from pharmaceutical manufacturers and HMOs significantly influence the probability of voting for the Bill. Similarly, Representatives are sensitive to their constituencyís interest: employment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the presence of senior citizens are also taken into account. However, the decision was by and large a partisan one: Party affiliation was the most important factor in passing the Bill.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-02.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
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Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/
currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; diffusion index; exchange rates;
Other versions of this item:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-02-01 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2005-02-01 (International Finance)
- NEP-SEA-2005-02-01 (South East Asia)
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- Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2006.
"Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis,"
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- Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia Using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Working Papers 538, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
- Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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