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Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises

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Author Info
Inoue, Atsushi
Rossi, Barbara

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Abstract

This paper examines the major interest groups in the debate over allowing the wholesale re-importation of prescription drugs through the Pharmaceutical Market Access Act. By making use of the logit model, we see the effects that each of these groups has had on the voting behavior of the 108 th Congress on the bill. We find evidence suggesting that Representatives are maximizing their electoral prospects: Contributions from pharmaceutical manufacturers and HMOs significantly influence the probability of voting for the Bill. Similarly, Representatives are sensitive to their constituency’s interest: employment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the presence of senior citizens are also taken into account. However, the decision was by and large a partisan one: Party affiliation was the most important factor in passing the Bill.

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Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-02.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:05-02

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Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
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Related research
Keywords: currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; diffusion index; exchange rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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