This paper shows that error correction models assuming that long-maturity forward rates are stationary outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting at forecasting horizons mostly above one year, for US dollar exchange rates against nine industrial countries’ currencies, using the 1990-2006 period for evaluating the out of sample forecasts. The improvement in forecast accuracy of our models is economically significant for most of the exchange rate series, and statistically significant according to a bootstrap test. Our results are robust to the specification of the error correction model and to the underlying data frequency.
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Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number
0705.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
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