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Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates

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  • Zsolt DARVAS
  • Zoltán SCHEPP

Abstract

The theoretical derivation of our forecasting equation is consistent with the monetary model of exchange rates. Our model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting of twelve major currency pairs in both short and long horizons forecasts for the 1990-2020 period. The results are robust for all sub-periods with the exception of years around the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications,...
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Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:000238:23800026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2007. "Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével [Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 501-528.
    2. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2008. "Kamatkülönbözet, spekulációs profit és árfolyam-változékonyság [Interest-rate differentials, speculative capital flows and exchange-rate volatility]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 941-961.
    3. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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