IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00665456.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Hyeyoen Kim

    (economics dept - University of Leicester)

Abstract

A well known puzzle in international finance concerns the observed very slow speeds of adjustment of real exchange rates in response to shocks. In this paper, we explore whether allowing for a wide range of influences on the real exchange rate in a nonlinear framework can help resolve this puzzle. Using recently proposed econometric methods for summarising very large macroeconomic data sets into a small number of observable factors, we find that there is a long-run relationship between these factors and real exchange rates. When put into a nonlinear framework, we find that allowing for the effects of macroeconomic factors dramatically increases the measured speed of adjustment of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00665456
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.513676
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00665456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00665456/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2010.513676?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    4. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    6. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 523-534, March.
    7. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    9. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    10. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    11. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    12. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, February.
    13. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-538, June.
    14. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
    15. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 639-649, 04/05.
    16. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    17. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
    18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    19. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    20. Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Smooth Transition Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 132, Stockholm School of Economics.
    21. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    22. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-542, November.
    23. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    24. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    25. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
    26. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    2. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    4. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    5. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    6. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2006. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668, July.
    7. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1167-1177, September.
    8. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    9. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Zied Ftiti & Slim Chaouachi, 2018. "What Can We Learn About the Real Exchange Rate Behavior in the Case of a Peripheral Country?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 681-707, September.
    11. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    12. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    13. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates: threshold autoregressive models and stochastic unit root processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 797-804.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    15. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    16. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinear mean-reversion to purchasing power parity: exponential smooth transition autoregressive models and stochastic unit root processes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 489-496.
    17. Yoon, Gawon, 2010. "Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 605-612, March.
    18. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
    19. López-Suárez, Carlos Felipe & Rodríguez-López, José Antonio, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 877-895, September.
    20. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Sciences & Humanities;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00665456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.