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Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn

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Abstract

We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange rates; (iii) the importance of individual macroeconomic variables shifts over time, although interest rates always appear to be important, and; (iv) economic fundamentals are perceived to be more important at longer horizons. The short run deviations of exchange rates from their fundamentals are attributed to excess speculation and institutional customer/hedge fund manipulation. Speculation is generally viewed positively, as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity, even though it exacerbates volatility. Central bank intervention does not appear to have a substantial effect, although there is general agreement that it increases volatility. Finally, traders do not view purchasing power parity as a useful concept, even though a significant proportion (40%) believe that it affects exchange rates at horizons of over six months.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7417.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7417

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  4. Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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  10. Lyons, Richard K., 1998. "Profits and position control: a week of FX dealing1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 97-115, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Anne Jansen & Bankim Chadha & Laura E. Kodres & Donald J. Mathieson & Sunil Sharma & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics," IMF Occasional Papers 166, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Tiffany Hutcheson, 2000. "Trading in the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Working Paper Series 107, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paul de Grauwe & Roberto Dieci & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Equilibria in the Foreign Exchange Market. A Behavioural Finance Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Schröder & Robert Dornau, 2000. "Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-14, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John T. Barkoulas, 1999. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 422, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Feb 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. M. Frenkel & G. Shimidt & G. Stadtmann & Nickle Christiane, 2002. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output ," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 27-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech & Helmut Stix, 2001. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS. The Post 1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 168, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76, April. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Yue Fang, 2000. "When Should Time be Continuous? Volatility Modeling and Estimation of High-Frequency Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0843, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  16. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Public Information: the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 255, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals - new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 365, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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